Health Care After Ted

I can't possibly start this post without something I should have said yesterday: America is mourning the loss of one of its greatest Senators, Ted Kennedy. Although I was never a Kennedy supporter, I am truly sorry for the loss of one of the last Lions of the Senate (the other remaining Senate lion, Bob Byrd, is on borrowed time as well). Moving on without his presence will be difficult for the Senate, a governing body I am extremely fond of (as my future analyses of various issues, which are heavily based on Senate numbers, will show).

However, we now have to move on to the cold, hard political reality of the situation. With the passing of Sen. Kennedy, the Senate is divided 59-40 (Lieberman [ID-CT] and Sanders [I-VT] will always be counted as Democrats), with one vacancy, which, under Massachusetts law, cannot be filled by gubernatorial appointment. Therefore, the Democrats do not have the 60 votes required to pass Health Care Reform. This issue can be resolved a number of ways, some of which could be very interesting:

1) Massachusetts Law Changed

This one is probably the most likely. Before his death, Ted began begging the Massachusetts House and Senate to change the law in order to allow Gov. Deval Patrick (D) to appoint an interim replacement until the special election is held. If this were to occur, Patrick would appoint a Democrat (word on the street is that it will be Joe Kennedy) to the seat, giving the Democrats the 60 votes they need.

2) The Maine Factor

Senators Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins (both R-ME) are known for their aversion to walking the party line. So, it is completely possible that the Democrats will convince them to support the invocation of cloture. That would make the margins 61-38, allowing passage.

3) The Gang of Six Pulls Through

There has been a lot of talk about the Gang of Six, the (surprise!) six Senators responsible for the attempt at a compromise on Health Care Reform. The gang consists of Max Baucus (D-MT), Snowe, Chuck Grassley (R-IA), Jeff Bingaman (D-NM), Kent Conrad (D-ND), and John Enzi (R-WY). However, the staunchly conservative views of Enzi and Grassley make it unlikely that either will support a bill that would be acceptable to the left. In addition, Bingaman recently made it clear that he would be willing to go forward without Republican support. Therefore, I have to say that the Gang of Six is unlikely to pull through with anything, but it's still a possibility.

4) Reconciliation: The "Hail Mary Pass" of the Senate

If all else fails, the Democrats have a final option: they can forgo the possibility of a filibuster entirely by invoking a rule called "reconciliation". Generally used for the budget, recent Democratic arguments state that the nature of Health Care Reform in terms of government expenditures, coupled with the bill's presence in the Senate Finance Committee, could warrant use of the procedure. If this were to occur, the Democrats would easily have the 50 votes necessary to pass Health Care Reform.

5) Failure

Then again, we are talking about the Democratic Party, which has done a spectacular job of dropping the ball on policy priorities. It is completely possible, though not particularly likely, that a revolt in the ranks or a failure to gain a 60th vote or invoke reconciliation could topple the Democratic hopes of reforming Health Care.

So, the Democrats have several options on the table. Once Congress is back in session, we shall see how they play their cards.

Rest in peace, Ted.